How Do Older Households React to Inflation? – Middle for Retirement Analysis

Introduction 

U.S. inflation peaked at 8.9 p.c in June 2022, and, whereas the speed has declined considerably since then, inflation nonetheless stays an vital concern.  That concern is justified in that the primary temporary on this two-part sequence – in addition to quite a few different research – have proven that inflation harms older households by each lowering their consumption and diminishing their wealth.  Most researchers, nevertheless, don’t contemplate how households react to inflation and the way these reactions might have an effect on their outcomes.  

This temporary builds on the state of affairs evaluation within the first temporary by together with behavioral responses when wanting on the impact of inflation on consumption and wealth of close to retirees and retirees.  The behavioral responses come from a brand new survey that explores how older households reacted to latest inflation – by way of labor provide, saving, and asset allocation.  These responses are included into the state of affairs evaluation to offer a extra full image of the impression of inflation on the consumption and wealth of older households.    

The dialogue proceeds as follows.  The primary part briefly recaps the principle findings from the state of affairs evaluation within the first temporary.  The second part describes the survey, which exhibits that a good portion of each close to retirees and retirees cut back new saving and enhance withdrawals from current accounts, however just a few close to retirees delay their deliberate retirement.  Curiously, older households don’t modify their asset allocation in response to inflation to any significant extent.  The third part incorporates diminished saving and elevated withdrawals into the state of affairs evaluation, exhibiting that these behaviors offset the drop in consumption brought on by inflation.  This enchancment in consumption is just not costless, nevertheless, since households find yourself with considerably much less wealth on the finish of the interval.  The ultimate part concludes that households should be capable of atone for saving – however will they accomplish that?

Recap of Situation Evaluation (w/out Behavioral Responses) 

The primary temporary estimated the impression of inflation on the funds of close to retirees (head ages 55-62) and retirees (head ages 62 and older) from 2021 to 2025.  We targeted on two metrics: 1) the true change in consumption from the start of the evaluation interval to the tip; and a couple of) the inventory of family wealth (monetary and housing) on the finish of the interval.   

Since inflation can have completely different results relying on the Fed’s coverage response, we thought of 4 hypothetical situations: 1) No inflation, which serves because the baseline, 2) Everlasting shock, the place inflation spikes at 4 p.c and stays there; 3) Tender touchdown, the place inflation regularly returns to 2 p.c in 2025 with out a recession; and 4) Recession, the place inflation begins to rise once more in 2024 and the Fed responds aggressively by elevating charges.  All outcomes had been reported relative to the “no-inflation” state of affairs. 

For the reason that outcomes confirmed that inflation had little or no impression on housing wealth, this temporary solely presents the findings for the change in consumption and monetary wealth.  By way of the distinction within the progress fee of consumption relative to the “no-inflation scenario,” the important thing discovering is that close to retirees expertise a smaller decline than retirees, even having fun with actual consumption beneficial properties within the “soft landing” state of affairs (see Desk 1).  This final result is because of the actual decline in mortgage funds relative to earnings.  In distinction, retirees have much less erosion of actual debt, and infrequently additionally lose actual earnings as employer pension advantages are solely partially listed to inflation.

By way of monetary (non-housing) wealth in 2025, we see that inflation has an unambiguous damaging impression (see Desk 2).  Prime-wealth households, nevertheless, at all times lose lower than their lower-wealth counterparts, as a result of they put money into equities, companies, and different property that develop with inflation.

Briefly, most older households lose actual consumption and wealth after an inflation shock.  The magnitude of the loss is dependent upon the character of the shock, the true progress of earnings and property, and the family’s publicity to fixed-rate debt.  The questions addressed on this evaluation are how households react to inflation and the results of their reactions for his or her consumption and wealth.

How Have Households Reacted to Current Inflation? 

Since financial principle is ambiguous about how older households ought to react to inflation, we undertook a brand new survey to discover how inflation impacted their conduct between 2021 and 2023.  The survey was fielded by Greenwald Analysis in November 2023 and consists of 1,501 respondents ages 55-85.  To align with the state of affairs evaluation, famous above, we concentrate on two teams: close to retirees, who had been below age 62 and dealing full time in 2021; and retirees, who had been 62 or older and retired from their major profession in 2021, with a partner additionally retired. In the end, 322 respondents within the survey meet our definition of close to retirees and 630 meet our definition of retirees.  

To offer context for the principle evaluation, the survey requested a sequence of questions on respondents’ value of dwelling, the expansion of their earnings and property (relative to the change in costs), and their financial outlook.  Determine 1 exhibits the share of respondents reporting a change of their value of dwelling between 2021 and 2023.  Fifty-four p.c of close to retirees and 40 p.c of retirees fee the rise as “very substantial,” and one other 30-31 p.c fee it “substantial.”

In the meantime, Determine 2 exhibits the share of close to retirees who report that their family’s work earnings stored tempo with inflation over this era.  Over half report that their earnings have gone up lower than inflation, 35 p.c report that earnings stored tempo with inflation, and solely 11 p.c skilled actual wage progress.  This sample aligns with the Federal Reserve Financial institution of Atlanta’s Wage Development Tracker, which experiences that employees ages 55+ noticed a decline in actual wages from the start of 2021 by way of Might of 2023.

Equally, Determine 3 exhibits the reported efficiency of family investments between 2021 and 2023, relative to cost ranges.  Seventy-two p.c of close to retirees and 64 p.c of retirees state that their investments grew lower than inflation, 11 p.c report that investments tracked inflation, and solely 6 p.c noticed actual progress.

To quantify the impression on family budgets, the survey additionally requested respondents to estimate the greenback enhance of their month-to-month value of dwelling between 2021 and 2023 as a proportion of 2023 family earnings.  This query measures the extent to which costs rose quicker than earnings for every family.  Though these greenback values are topic to recall error (and are top-coded at 8 p.c of earnings) we will decide whether or not bills rose 5 p.c quicker than earnings or extra, and the way that extra worth progress correlates with respondents’ notion of inflation.  As anticipated, 34 p.c of respondents experiencing “very substantial” inflation report that their month-to-month bills rose a minimum of 5 p.c quicker than earnings, in comparison with 11 p.c of respondents within the “substantial” group, and solely 2 p.c of respondents within the “not much” group.

Unsurprisingly given these experiences, many older households are pessimistic in regards to the trajectory of the financial system.  Fifty-three p.c of close to retirees and 43 p.c of retirees have a damaging outlook for 2024 (see Desk 3).  Moreover, 60 p.c of close to retirees and 52 p.c of retirees consider that final 12 months’s inflation will contribute to a weaker financial system over the 12 months.

The following step is to take a look at how respondents’ expertise with, and perceptions of, inflation affected their conduct.  The survey requested respondents whether or not they had made modifications since 2021 alongside 4 dimensions: 1) labor provide (retirement age and hours labored); 2) saving fee; 3) withdrawals from financial savings; and 4) asset allocation.  For respondents reporting a change in conduct, the survey had them rank their motivations so as of significance.  We attribute a change in conduct to inflation if the respondent cited rising costs as their major motivator.  

Labor Provide 

Desk 4 experiences the impression of inflation on labor provide.  The primary row exhibits that whereas 34 p.c of all close to retirees modified their retirement age, solely 4 p.c did so due to inflation.  Amongst these reacting to inflation, the following row exhibits a mean anticipated delay of 4 years.  For context, this size of delay is much like outcomes from earlier survey analysis, however we discover many fewer people select to delay in any respect.  One rationalization is that earlier analysis interviewed respondents on the top of inflation in 2022, whereas we fielded our survey in November 2023.

Saving and Withdrawals

Turning to monetary wealth, 39 p.c of close to retirees declare to have modified their saving due to inflation (see Desk 5).  Amongst these primarily motivated by inflation, annual saving declined by $4,065, on common, or 4 p.c of annual family earnings in 2023.

Moreover, rising costs induced each close to retirees and retirees to dip into their financial savings.  Desk 6, which mixes the outcomes for each teams as a result of they’re fairly comparable, experiences that 23 p.c of respondents modified their withdrawals from 2021 to 2023 due to rising costs.  Amongst these making modifications, the common enhance was $3,620 (5 p.c of 2023 family earnings).

Asset Allocation  

In distinction to the substantial shares of households altering saving and withdrawals, a a lot smaller proportion modified their asset allocation.  Desk 7, which once more combines outcomes for close to retirees and retirees, signifies that, whereas 35 p.c of all households modified their allocation between 2021 and 2023, the magnitude of the shift could be very small.  To the extent that shifts occurred, households moved away from equities and towards fastened earnings.

Implications for Retirement Safety

The following step is to include households’ behavioral responses into the state of affairs modeling.  For this train, we concentrate on the modifications in saving and withdrawals, since only a few close to retirees modified their retirement age or asset allocation.  For every near-retiree family, we calculate the full discount in saving (the decline in saving plus the rise in withdrawals between 2021 and 2023).  On common, this discount equaled 4 p.c of 2023 earnings, which we annualize to 2 p.c per 12 months.  Equally, retirees enhance their annual withdrawals by 2.5 p.c of earnings (annualizing the 5-percent change reported within the survey for 2021-2023).  For simplicity, we assume that households throughout the wealth distribution reply equally and that the annualized charges of change begin in Might 2021 and persist by way of December 2025.   

Desk 8 exhibits the distinction within the progress fee of actual consumption, from 2021 to 2025, relative to the “no inflation” state of affairs as soon as we incorporate behavioral responses reported within the survey.  Unsurprisingly, households are in a position to shut a lot of the inflation-consumption hole by tapping into their financial savings.  The important thing distinction in outcomes right here is between close to retirees – who all present beneficial properties in consumption – and retirees – who primarily see small declines.

This short-term acquire, nevertheless, comes on the expense of future consumption.  Desk 9 compares actual monetary wealth in 2025, with behavioral responses, to the “no inflation” state of affairs.  As anticipated, diminished saving and elevated withdrawals compound the direct impression of inflation on wealth.

To obviously illustrate this trade-off between present and future consumption, Determine 4 compares the outcomes incorporating the behavioral responses to the unique baseline evaluation for one kind of family: close to retirees within the middle-wealth tercile below the “soft landing” state of affairs.  Recall that, within the authentic mannequin, the expansion fee of actual consumption was 0.5 proportion factors greater than within the “no inflation” state of affairs (because of the actual decline in mortgage debt).  After households cut back their saving, actual consumption grows 6.4 proportion factors greater than in “no inflation.”  Nonetheless, whereas the preliminary mannequin discovered a 6.6-percent discount in monetary wealth in comparison with “no inflation,” the outcomes incorporating behavioral responses create an 11.9-percent drop.  This identical trade-off holds throughout all age teams, wealth terciles, and macroeconomic situations.

Conclusion

Excessive inflation in later life is usually dangerous to retirement safety.  Compounding the direct impacts on actual earnings and wealth, many households reduce their saving and enhance withdrawals when inflation spikes.  So, what can older households do to mitigate the chance of a future inflation shock?

Households which might be nonetheless working when inflation hits have probably the most flexibility to enhance their scenario.  Since wages are inclined to lag costs, households that keep within the workforce are prone to expertise actual wage beneficial properties finally, permitting them to atone for their saving.  Working longer additionally reduces the interval over which financial savings should unfold.  

Retired households have much less alternative to earn inflation-adjusted earnings.  Nonetheless, they will nonetheless take protecting steps when inflation hits, comparable to – to the extent doable – re-investing their fixed-income holdings to benefit from rising rates of interest, fairly than making withdrawals that lock in massive preliminary losses.  

The inflation shock that prompted our examine is beginning to recede, and the Federal Reserve now appears prone to obtain a smooth touchdown.  Will households reverse course as inflation moderates, saving extra and withdrawing much less?  We go away these and different questions for future work.

References

Aubry, Jean-Pierre and Laura D. Quinby. 2024a. “How Does Inflation Impact Near Retirees and Retirees?” Concern in Transient 24-12. Chestnut Hill, MA: Middle for Retirement Analysis at Boston School. 

Aubry, Jean-Pierre and Laura D. Quinby. 2024b. “How Do Households React to Inflation? New Survey Evidence.” Working Paper 2024-3. Chestnut Hill, MA: Middle for Retirement Analysis at Boston School.

Aubry, Jean-Pierre and Laura D. Quinby. 2024c. “What Risks Do Near Retirees and Retirees Face from Inflation?” Working Paper 2024-4. Chestnut Hill, MA: Middle for Retirement Analysis at Boston School.

Federal Reserve Financial institution of Atlanta. 2000-2023. “Wage Growth Tracker.” Atlanta, GA.

Franklin, Glen. 2023. “The Impact of Inflation’s Return on Retirement Planning.” Highlands Ranch, CO: 401k Specialist. 

MFS Funding Administration. 2023. “Inflation is Already Reshaping Retirement Strategies and Expectations, 2023 MFS Global Retirement Survey Finds.” Boston, MA.

Nationwide. 2022. “Nationwide in Plan Sponsor: Survey Report.” Columbus, OH.

U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Survey of Shopper Funds, 2019. Washington, DC.